U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus02 kwns 181636 
Storm Prediction Center ac 181635 

Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1035 am CST Mon Nov 18 2019 

Valid 191200z - 201200z 

..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 

scattered thunderstorms are expected over much of Arizona and New 
Mexico from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. A few storms 
could produce small hail. 

..southern Arizona... 
A mid-level low west of Baja California Tuesday morning will weaken as it is 
shunted to the east-northeast into northwestern Mexico as a 
mid-level trough over northern California/or moves south-southeast into 
central/Southern California. Increasing midlevel moisture will support a 
threat of thunderstorms beginning over the lower Colorado River valley and 
much of Arizona Tuesday afternoon, and spreading into southern Utah and 
much of central and western nm by Wednesday morning. Recent suite 
of operational models show weak instability developing as the wind 
profile strengthens during the late afternoon/late evening period 
over southern Arizona. A few stronger storms are possible but would 
likely be confined to Southeast Arizona where the greatest combination of 
shear/instability are forecast. Will defer a potential low-severe 
highlight for the time being but later outlooks will reevaluate this 
possible scenario. 

..maximum risk by hazard... 
Tornado: <2% - none 
wind: <5% - none 
hail: <5% - none 

.Smith.. 11/18/2019