U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Day Three

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Storm Prediction Center ac 180742 


Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0142 am CST Mon Nov 18 2019 


Valid 201200z - 211200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
scattered thunderstorms are possible Wednesday over the Desert 
Southwest, with isolated activity into the Southern Plains. Severe 
storms are not expected. 


... 
An upper low is forecast to move from Southern California into Utah on 
Wednesday with the left exit region of a cyclonically curved 
midlevel speed Max nosing into Arizona during the day. While scattered 
storms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning over Arizona with limited 
heating, strong cooling aloft will aid destabilization with a few 
hundred j/kg of MUCAPE expected. Storms are likely to be focused 
over central and Southeast Arizona where southerly winds will lead to 
upslope flow. While veering winds with height will conditionally 
favor supercells, it is uncertain whether sufficient instability 
will develop. As such, will maintain < 5% severe coverage. 


..southern/Central Plains... 
A lead shortwave trough will lose amplitude as it moves from 
southwest Texas into the Central Plains, where low pressure will 
develop ahead of a cold front. This front will extend roughly from 
Dalhart Texas to Omaha NE at 00z Thursday, with southerly surface winds 
bringing mid to upper 50s f dewpoints northward across OK and 
eastern Kansas. Although moist, the boundary layer will remain cool and 
capped. However, midlevel moisture as well as sufficiently steep 
lapse rates aloft will lead to elevated instability rooted near 700 
mb, with scattered showers and storms from eastern nm into parts of 
OK and Kansas during the day. Despite strong effective shear, weak 
instability should preclude any severe hail chances. 


.Jewell.. 11/18/2019 


$$