U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

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Storm Prediction Center ac 250725 

Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0225 am CDT sun Aug 25 2019 

Valid 271200z - 281200z 

..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across southern 
OK and northern Texas... 

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across southern Oklahoma 
and northern Texas on Tuesday. 

A large and mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be centered near 
the central Manitoba/Ontario border early Tuesday. Center of this 
cyclone is expected to move eastward into far northwestern Ontario 
while cyclonic flow throughout its base moves over the upper and 
middle MS valleys. 

At the surface, a cold front will likely extend from the upper Great 
Lakes southeastward through the middle MS valley and into northwest 
Texas. Northern portion of this front is expected to remain fairly 
progressive, reaching the lower Great Lakes, upper Ohio Valley, and 
middle Tennessee Valley by Tuesday evening. Southern/western portion of the 
front are expected to be less progressive with outflow from a mesoscale convective system 
becoming the effective boundary across southern OK/northern Texas. 

While thunderstorms are possible along northern portions of the 
front, displacement east of the better vertical shear should 
mitigate storm intensity. Warm temperatures, ample low-level 
moisture, and strong convergence along the composite front should be 
able to overcome the warm mid-level temperatures across southern 
OK/northern Texas. Environment supports a severe threat with any storms 
that develop, but location of the front is uncertain, and the lack 
of large-scale forcing for ascent and warm mid-level temperatures 
could limit storm coverage. As such, only low severe probabilities 
are introduced with this forecast. 

.Mosier.. 08/25/2019