- Day Three
acus03 kwns 250726
Storm Prediction Center ac 250725
Day 3 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 am CDT sun Aug 25 2019
Valid 271200z - 281200z
..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across southern
OK and northern Texas...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across southern Oklahoma
and northern Texas on Tuesday.
A large and mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be centered near
the central Manitoba/Ontario border early Tuesday. Center of this
cyclone is expected to move eastward into far northwestern Ontario
while cyclonic flow throughout its base moves over the upper and
middle MS valleys.
At the surface, a cold front will likely extend from the upper Great
Lakes southeastward through the middle MS valley and into northwest
Texas. Northern portion of this front is expected to remain fairly
progressive, reaching the lower Great Lakes, upper Ohio Valley, and
middle Tennessee Valley by Tuesday evening. Southern/western portion of the
front are expected to be less progressive with outflow from a mesoscale convective system
becoming the effective boundary across southern OK/northern Texas.
While thunderstorms are possible along northern portions of the
front, displacement east of the better vertical shear should
mitigate storm intensity. Warm temperatures, ample low-level
moisture, and strong convergence along the composite front should be
able to overcome the warm mid-level temperatures across southern
OK/northern Texas. Environment supports a severe threat with any storms
that develop, but location of the front is uncertain, and the lack
of large-scale forcing for ascent and warm mid-level temperatures
could limit storm coverage. As such, only low severe probabilities
are introduced with this forecast.