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Three Areas We're Watching in the Atlantic for Tropical Development Right Now
Published: September 11, 2019
There are no active named storms in the Atlantic right now, but since it's the peak of hurricane season, the tropics are still being monitored closely for any possible development.
Tropical Storm Gabrielle fizzled Tuesday morning, marking the first time the Atlantic Basin has no active named storms since Dorian first formed on Aug. 24. However, three areas still bear watching for possible tropical development, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
Here's a rundown of each system.
Potential Development Areas
Three Other Areas to Watch in the Atlantic
Disturbance No. 1
The disturbance closest to the United States is located near the southeastern Bahamas.
The NHC has tagged this system Invest 95L as of Tuesday afternoon. This is a naming convention used by meteorologists to identify areas that are being monitored for possible tropical development.
Hostile upper-level winds will keep this system from organizing the next few days as it moves west-northwestward toward the Florida Peninsula.
Regardless, this system will produce periods of gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across the Bahamas through Thursday, then across Florida from Friday into the weekend. This includes areas affected by Dorian in the northwestern Bahamas.
Some squalls may produce wind gusts over 40 mph for short periods of time.
By this weekend, some development of this system is possible when it moves into the Gulf of Mexico. The NHC has given it a medium chance of development over the next five days.
Our current guidance suggests this system would track toward the northern Gulf Coast by early next week, either as a disturbance, tropical depression or tropical storm. The next named Atlantic storm would be "Humberto".
Whatever it is called, this system will bring an increase in showers and storms with locally heavy rain to parts of Florida late this week, then areas along the northern Gulf Coast and Deep South into early next week.
Potential Development Area
Disturbance No. 2
A weak area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, in the tropical Atlantic Ocean is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
The NHC says this system has a low chance of development before upper-level winds become unfavorable by Thursday.
Disturbance No. 3
A tropical wave just off the west coast of Africa is expected to move quickly westward over the next several days. Some slow development is possible this weekend when the system is several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
The NHC has given this system a low chance of development over the next five days.
It's too early to know whether this system could eventually impact any land areas next week.
The Peak of Hurricane Season
This sounds like a lot of activity at once, but it's fairly normal for this time of year.
As Neal Dorst of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division points out, September is a peak month not only in the Atlantic Basin, but is also part of a broad peak of activity in the Eastern Pacific and Western Pacific basins of the Northern Hemisphere.
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